Friday, April 3, 2009

An interesting prediction about the Republican Party

Although I don't particularly like Newt Gingrich because of some of his personal decisions, I have to say that he might be on to something.

"Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich skewered both President Barack Obama and former President George W. Bush for their mishandling of the economy in a talk with students on Tuesday, but it was his warning to Republicans that raised eyebrows.
"If the Republicans can't break out of being the right wing party of big government, then I think you would see a third party movement in 2012," Gingrich said at an event hosted by the College of the Ozarks in Point Lookout, Mo., TV station KY3 reported. A loss of small-government conservatives would be an enormous blow to the GOP

Like I said before, I don't like him, but he knows what he's talking about. Up to this point, Republicans have continued to act as if being RINOs will suddenly vault them back into power. It was precisely this attitude that gradually wore away their power and then got them decisively bounced out.

"Gingrich said last month that he is seriously considering a run for president in 2012, and many pundits have said that he would be a strong contender."

Yeah good luck to that. I say to the pundits that they're full of shit. The left would have a field day with this guy if for some reason he got the nomination. His personal life alone would turn most people off (it did me). Sorry, but I don't know how you could fend off the news that he wanted to divorce one of his wives while she was recovering from surgery. I'm not saying I'm an angel, but that's pretty goddamn low. Another problem is his mouth. He just can't shut up about anything and it's one of the major reasons why the Republicans couldn't capitalize on Clinton's low ratings in the 1996 presidential campaign. He turned a lot of people off and then got knocked out in his own district.

"In a question and answer session with students, Gingrich took aim at Obama's fiscal policies, blasting the bank bailouts, stimulus package and proposed $3.5 trillion dollar federal budget as part of 'the most destructive agenda in modern history.' "

That part is true. I think long term, Americans are going to pay a steep price for "unicorn economics."

"But he also laid into Bush's free-spending ways. 'Remember, everything Obama's doing, Bush started last year,' Gingrich said. 'If you're going to talk about big spending, the mistakes of the Bush administration last year are fully as bad as the mistakes of Obama's first two, three months.' "

This is also true. I said back in September that this bailout was a horrendous idea and that it would backfire spectacularly in the future if Obama was elected. They can't exactly attack him on his spending policies when they spent like Democrats themselves for six years.

I think Gingrich is more suited to being a political analyst at this point than being a presidential candidate because he's already had his shot in politics. It's very difficult to regain credibility when you were bumped out previously.

However, I do think he's prophetic when he said that there could be a third party. I think that's what will ultimately happen. I don't think conservatives are going to wait while the RINOs keep losing (even when they're winning) political battles that further undermine Republican credibility (people such as Megan "like, oh my god" McCain and her nonsense).

In fact, I think that's what conservatives ultimately should do. Create a third party and see what happens. Now, short term, it may not look good, but they should stay the course. There needs to be a clear alternative to the current Democrat-Lite attitudes of the Republican Party, since the actual Democratic Party is swinging hard to the left. The Republican Party has lost an awful lot of credibility in the last 10 years. Maybe a new party can restore lost honor.


  1. I might not be ready for a third party but I would like an option not available presently, a conservative party!

  2. Hi Artruen,

    What will happen in the event that a new conservative party forms is either it will die quickly from a serious lack of support (which is possible), or will emerge as a dynamic new party that will quickly replace the Republican Party.

    In the former case, either the Republicans will ignore the conservatives who left (judging them as ineffectual) or make concrete consessions in order for them to rejoin the party. In the latter case, it may happen if the new conservative party actually makes solid gains in elections (such as electing a number of people to Congress).

    In fact, the GOP started out as a third-party when they consolidated a couple of weaker political parties in the 1850's as well as effectively splitting the Whig Party. It's no accident that the Whigs dissolved at the time the Republicans became stronger.

    Other examples of parties starting up but then falling apart were the Progressives in the 1920's and the Reformists in the 1990's. Both had strong leaders initially (La Follette for the Progressives and Perot for Reformists), but couldn't keep it going due to the lack of charisma from subsequent party-heads.

    The problem with starting and, more importantly, maintaining a new conservative party would be in the leadership category. I don't see too many GOP leaders that would be willing to move over, so whatever leadership that would emerge would have to hit the ground running.

    I think that Gingrich was thinking of setting himself up as an annointed head of this new party should it emerge (hence his warning), but I don't see him as much more than a power-grabber.